Bumpier Rides Ahead
How the Singapore Airlines flight shed light once again on the increasing rates of turbulence.
If you have flown before, you will probably have experienced some form of turbulence and probably a mild case of it, however, rare but severe turbulence does occur, like this week.
At the beginning of this week, on the 21st of May, Singapore Airlines SQ321 experienced this severe turbulence case, resulting in a death and 104 hospitalisations varying from mild to critical care1. Now although these freak incidents happen rarely, there have been many studies that indicate that turbulence in general will increase due to climate change. Now to answer why, we need to address first of all, what is turbulence and then we can address what climate change has to do with it.
What is Turbulence?
Turbulence is caused by pockets of disturbed air that move rapidly and they are most commonly caused by storm clouds. These storm clouds luckily come up on the radar making it easily avoidable. However, there are many other types that still need to be discussed.
Frontal Turbulence happens when two air masses (of different temperatures) meet. The sudden change in density as well as the convection currents can cause the plane to bounce. The next one is more severe and harder to predict. Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) can happen with no clouds and is when there is a sudden and severe swirl, but due to its early discovery, little is known about its cause.
Wake turbulence is common but much less catastrophic when at cruising altitude. However, it has caused crashes before due to the close proximity of airplanes taking-off and landing.
There is also mechanical turbulence which is due to air flowing over uneven terrains below like mountains, causing these sudden drops in flow or vice versa. On a similar note is the convective turbulence caused by the Earth heating up unevenly creating strong convection currents, resulting in a bumpy ride.
Now on this flight this turbulence was caused by either thunderstorms or clear air turbulence, but its unsure which one it was in particular.
Now with all these forms of turbulence, they surely can’t be all related to climate change right? Well luckily for us, only two types increases, clear air turbulence and storm related turbulence. But with an increase in 55% of turbulence cases caused by CAT since 1979, we can expect this type to cause more of these incidents2. The warm air, created by the CO2 emissions is said to responsible for increasing windshear in the jet stream.
Again the main issue with CAT is that it cannot be monitored, there is only some indication of where these pockets can occur, making it challenging for pilots to avoid.
With climate change, the intensity of storms will increase as well. The warming environment causes more water vapour to be in the air which results in stronger winds and more rainfall, all which can cause turbulence to be more severe.
What can we do?
Well other than fighting climate change, the airline industry has to find ways to cope with the increase in turbulence, otherwise it will continue to cost airlines money. Although turbulence can’t make a plane crash, it can increase its wear and increase its maintenance costs. A study conducted by Research Application Laboratory estimated that turbulence related incidents can cost US airlines up to $500m3. There are two things we need to do to reduce the likeliness of this event happening again.
Increase research and funding toward the tracking/ prediction of turbulent flow zones especially the clear air turbulence.
Improve the planes so that the turbulence will have less of an effect on it. This has already somewhat happened with the emergence of the B-787 Dreamliner and the A350. By using carbon fibre composites, the wings of these planes can flex a lot more, something you can notice when you are taxiing vs when in the air. The max that these wings can flex is 26 ft or 8m upwards, and this flex acts like a spring when the plane enters turbulence. The wings would flex according to the turbulent flow but leave the body of the aircraft less effected.
So if you are flying and you are on one of these two planes you will less likely feel the turbulence. But in the mean time, don’t worry, there hasn’t been a direct death linked to turbulence for over 25 years and severe turbulence cases like the one experienced on the Singapore Airlines flight very rarely occurs.
Till then, see you next week
‘Screaming in agony': Passengers recall horror onboard flight - BBC
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8889d7x8j4o
Aviation Turbulence Strengthened as the World Warmed - University of Reading https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2023/Research-News/Aviation-turbulence-strengthened-as-the-world-warmed
Turbulence - A leading cause for in-flight injuries and air traffic controller workload - Research Application Laboratory - https://ral.ucar.edu/aap/turbulence